WESTERVILLE – Just a month has passed since the last presidential debate, but the state of the Democrats’ 2020 race has shifted.
The political world is suddenly consumed by an escalating impeachment inquiry, one of the leading Democratic presidential hopefuls, Bernie Sanders, is recovering from a heart attack, and Joe Biden is no longer the only front-runner, thanks to a rising Elizabeth Warren.
Those evolving story lines and other issues will play out on national television Tuesday night during a debate in Westerville.
Warren leads Biden by a three-point margin in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, released Monday.
“For Senator Warren, the third straight time essentially tied at the top is the charm. Her candidacy clearly has staying power going into the debate,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said.
Warren received 30 percent of the support in the poll from Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, while Biden got 27 percent and Sanders trailed with only 11 percent support.
Some analysts are saying that the debate is a must-win for Joe Biden who needs to put on a good showing in a state that voted for him and former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but flipped to Donald Trump in 2016.
“Given that his political profile has been established and developed on the basis of representing blue-collar and, kind of, Rust Belt interests, insofar as that is how he has defined his identity, it would be a real blow for him not to do well,” said Reed Kurtz, a political science professor at Otterbein University, where the debate will be held.
The candidates are also confronting a rapidly shifting political landscape as the House impeachment inquiry that has put President Donald Trump on the offensive has also reordered the political calculus for Democrats, especially Biden.
The former vice president is facing baseless — but persistent — allegations of wrongdoing overseas from Trump and his allies.
Warren is also fending off new questions about her biography and — adding to the drama — Sanders is recovering from a heart attack that raised questions about his ability to withstand a campaign and speculation about who might win his support if he had to drop out.
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 8 percent and Sen. Kamala Harris at 4 percent were the only other candidates to top 2 percent, Malloy said.
The dozen Democrats seeking the party’s nomination to challenge President Donald Trump’s reelection are gathering in the wake of Trump’s abandonment of Syrian Kurds to a Turkish invasion. Whether the invasion of Syria or other issues get much attention is an open question given the crowded stage.