COLUMBUS – A poll released Tuesday morning indicates that Gov. John Kasich may not enjoy a home-court advantage over businessman Donald Trump in Ohio’s March 15 Republican presidential primary.
According to the Quinnipiac University Poll, Kasich trails the GOP front-runner 31-26 percent.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are trailing Kasich with 21 and 13 percent respectively while Dr. Ben Carson got 5 percent among the state’s likely Republican voters.
Trump‘s advantage bodes ill for the GOP establishment as well as Ohio’s favorite son.
“A Kasich Ohio win is crucial to the Republicans trying to stop the New York businessman’s nomination,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. “If Trump can defeat Kasich in his home state that would be an impressive demonstration of his strength in a state that is just now getting attention.”
“But Trump’s lead is just 5 points, certainly not large enough for him to breathe easy,” Brown added.
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 55 to 40 percent.
Five percent of Ohio Republicans remain undecided and 38 percent say they might change their mind before Election Day, though 78 percent of Trump supporters say their minds are made up.
Of those voters, 32 percent say they “would definitely not support” Trump for the nomination.
Trump tops Kasich 35 to 26 percent among men while the two split the female vote with 27 percent supporting Trump and 26 percent for Kasich.
The only areas where Kasich shows better than Trump is among college-educated voters, where he holds a 35-22 percent lead, and voters 65 and older where his advantage is 5 points, 32 t0 27 percent.
Kasich has the best favorability rating among the candidates – 77 percent – compared with 62 for Rubio, Cruz at 60 and Trump at 57 percent.
The poll of 759 likely Republican primary voters was conducted Feb. 16 – 20 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.